Following a notably dry beginning to the rainy season, Southern California is poised for a surge of rainfall starting Wednesday. Meteorologists suggest that this may signal the onset of a rainier March.

Forecast Overview

Rainfall is anticipated to commence around noon in Los Angeles County, advancing from the Central Coast. The most intense precipitation is expected from late Wednesday through early Friday, according to Robbie Munroe, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

Next week promises additional rain, a crucial reprieve for the region, which has experienced one of the driest rainy seasons on record—fueling a particularly destructive wildfire season.

Current Rainfall Statistics

As of Tuesday, downtown Los Angeles recorded 5.58 inches of rain since the beginning of the water year on October 1, falling short of the average of 11.08 inches for this period. The yearly average stands at 14.25 inches.

“We’ve been playing catch-up, it feels like, the whole winter after an extremely dry period through January,” Munroe remarked. “February was still a little below normal, but at least it kind of got us closer to what we might see this time of year.”

Rain and Snow Accumulation Projections

During the upcoming storm, rain accumulation predictions vary by region:

• Coastal areas: between 0.1 and 1 inch.
• Foothills and mountains: between 1 and 2 inches.
• Higher elevations (above 4,500 feet): 2 to 5 inches of snow.

Wind gusts could reach 30 to 50 mph on Thursday, heightening the storm’s impact.

Potential Hazards and Precautions

Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday into Thursday, with risks of heavy downpours, gusty winds, lightning strikes, small hail, and even weak tornadoes. While the moisture is expected to be largely beneficial, rapid rainfall could pose risks for debris flows, particularly in burn scar areas such as the Palisades and Eaton.

The National Weather Service warns of a 10% to 20% chance of significant flooding and debris movement in these affected burn areas. “There’s a potential for isolated mud flows, and some streets could be blocked by mud and debris,” stated Angela George-Moody, chief deputy director of L.A. County’s Department of Public Works.

Pre-storm preparations have seen crews clearing flood control facilities, and residents are urged to ready their properties with drainage clearances and sandbags.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

This winter has already demonstrated the potential hazards of sudden wet weather. Previous heavy rains led to mudslides and road closures along critical routes such as Pacific Coast Highway. However, this new storm system is not expected to be as severe as those earlier events.

As California continues to seek relief from its dry spell, there is optimism that a wet March could help mitigate future fire risks. Munroe noted, “The longer we can have wet weather into the spring, it usually helps us delay when things get a chance to really dry out.”

Looking Ahead

Post-storm relief is anticipated after Friday, with possible clearer skies before another system is projected to bring additional light to moderate rain starting Sunday evening through Tuesday. Subsequently, another potential storm could arrive around March 13, carrying heavier rain bands, although specific amounts remain uncertain.